Spring has really sprung here. As I flew back in to Austin on Tuesday afternoon, I saw how green, green our area is! What a difference our rainy, cool winter made for our lakes, rivers and greenery. The flowers are in full bloom and the pollen is, well, pollinating!
Off to see the oceans of bluebonnets in Fredricksburg this weekend on the Willow City Loop. I can’t wait.
Here’s some good news about Texas via the Austin Business Journal:
Austin 6th most-moved-to city, U-Haul says
Austin Business JournalAustin was listed as the country’s sixth most-moved-to destination, though it fell behind San Antonio and Houston, U-Haul International Inc. reported today.
The national do-it-yourself moving giant compiled data from travelers moving more than 50 miles last year and found Houston topped the list, moving up from second in 2008. The 2009 Top 50 U.S. Destination Cities used information from more than a million U-Haul truck transactions, but is not necessarily reflective of overall population movement.
Las Vegas moved up to the second most moved to city from the No. 4 in 2008, and Chicago climbed to No. 3 from No. 7. San Antonio ranked No. 4, moving up from No. 8., while Orlando, Fla. moved up to fifth place from the No. 10 rank last year.
Other top-moved-to sites include: Atlanta, Geo.; Sacramento, Calif.; Kansas City, MO.; Denver, Colo.; Philadelphia, Pa.; San Diego, Calif.; Brooklyn, N.Y.; Phoenix, Ariz; Dallas, Texas; Tampa, Fla.; Los Angeles, Calif.; Van Nuys, Calif.; Costs Mesa, Calif.; New York City; and others.
A U.S. Census Bureau report released last December found that nearly half a million Americans moved to Texas between July 2008 and July 2009, making it the most migrated to in the U.S. Four Texas cities ranked in the top 10 fastest-growing in that report, including Round Rock.
Out of the top 50 Metros, Austin is projected to be the best performing economy in terms of the quickest recovery. In the following article, Beverly Kerr also summarizes reports from several excellent economic sources that report on Austin.
Central Texas Economy In Perspective
By Beverly Kerr, Chamber Vice President of Research
Recent reports from the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Brookings Institution provide perspective on the relative pace of recovery among different metropolitan areas in this recession. And a new assessment of the state of the Texas economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas provides additional context for Austin.
The annual U.S. Metro Economies report from the U.S. Conference of Mayors provides a wealth of both historical and projected data on jobs, unemployment, and gross metropolitan product. Their projections include unemployment rates through 2013 and what quarter each metro will return to their former peak employment level.
As we’ve heard in numerous reports on the recession, job growth and reductions in unemployment will lag the return to economic growth that signals the end of the recession. Though Austin had a relatively moderate recession this time around, we know well from this region’s experience of the 2001 recession that the job market hangover can be prolonged.
The Mayor’s report, with data from Global Insight, gives the time frame for our return to peak employment as Q2 2010. Austin’s previous peak employment relative to this recession was Q4 2008, so regaining that within 6 quarters is considerably better than what is expected for almost all other metros. The prerecession peak for all U.S. metros, Q4 2007, will not be returned to until Q3 2012. In Austin’s experience of the 2001 recession, we peaked in Nov. 2000 with 690,300 jobs and did not see that total again until April of 2005 54 months or over 13 quarters.
Austin also had a better experience of the recession, relative to other metros, as measured by the unemployment rate. However, currently at 7.2% (NSA) or 7.0% (SA), unlike job growth/loss, this metric is higher than the rates seen here in the previous recession. Unemployment in Austin averaged 4.4% in 2008, but with projections in the Mayors’ report only going to 2013, we don’t know when Austin will again see rates that low. Rates appear to be projected to hover over 7% through 2011 and only drop to 6.1% by the end of 2013. In the last recession unemployment did not go above 6.7% here and only exceeded 5% for about 35 months. The unemployment rate is in uncommon territory statewide as well, at over 8%, its highest level in 22 years. The Mayor’s report projects the majority of U.S. metros will still have unemployment rates over 6% at the end of 2013.
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